Don't write Paterson off yet

By The Associated Press

Monday, October 26, 2009 12:00 AM EDT

ALBANY - New York Gov. David Paterson has an argument.
Not that many people are listening, but he has an argument about why, despite low poll numbers and being abandoned by much of his own Democratic Party, he should be elected to a full term next year. By a December deadline some Democrats had given him to raise his numbers and support, his time to seize the opportunity is waning.

Still, Paterson has an argument. And, contrary to headlines and views from politicians to pundits to bartenders, some important players are still willing to listen, for now.

“I wouldn't write him off yet,” cautioned one senior Democratic adviser, while most other Democrats have done just that.

How? Although it strains credulity, Paterson could yet create a coalition built around black and Latino leaders which would be necessary to build bridges with labor unions and gain the support of county Democratic leaders statewide, according to the adviser who spoke on the condition of anonymity and who doesn't work for Paterson.

In the coming days, that's what Paterson's team will begin furiously planning to try.

It'll be a tough room. Organized labor has already spent millions of dollars to tear Paterson down as he sought funding cuts over the last 19 months. And there's no sign the unions - who provide critical funding and foot soldiers in statewide campaigns - are forgiving or forgetting.

Meanwhile, the popular Democratic attorney general, Andrew Cuomo, is solidly perched atop the polls, attracting headlines for his investigation against bloated bonuses on Wall Street and statewide scammers, and had twice the campaign fund of Paterson in the last official Board of Elections filing.

“Nothing seems to help the governor's job numbers,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Nothing seems to hurt Attorney General Cuomo whose job performance is still stratospheric.”

Still, Paterson publicly and privately is saying he's staying in the race, until “the people of New York state” tell him to quit.

“There's no question the governor is trying to put something together,” said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf, who isn't working for Paterson. “It's the bottom of the ninth. He's the pitcher. He's trying to close the game so he can win it, but the odds are not with him.”

Sheinkopf said some pieces are falling into place: Paterson's constitutional court victory supporting his appointment of Richard Ravitch as lieutenant governor. Ravitch is experienced in fixing fiscal crises, respected and unshakable in the face of political pressure.

“He's got to get his numbers up and raise $20 million,” Sheinkopf said of Paterson's next moves. He can do that by blaming the fiscal mess on past governors and persuading Albany's many powers that they must bond together to fix it. And one more thing, Sheinkopf said: “He's got to get people around him other people are afraid of ... the first rule of politics is you go into the jungle with a bigger gun.”

“I think Paterson definitely has a pulse,” said Michael Tobman, a political strategist with experience in Albany who once worked for Democratic U.S. Senator Charles Schumer. “People who are opining on Paterson's future are actually setting themselves up for the upcoming budget ... Whoever was the governor would get the same treatment.”

Tobman, who doesn't work for Paterson, said he needs a powerful state Democrat directly puts out the message: “David Paterson is not running for governor. He is governor.”

The New York Daily News editorial page cut Paterson some slack this week: “To his credit, the governor had the courage to urge fast reductions in school aid and health care spending as a way to stave off the looming disaster.” By contrast, it said legislative leaders show a “gaping shortfall of serious leadership.”

Time is short. Cuomo has already made inroads in with voters including most black voters, and donors, without ever saying he's going to run for governor.

Paterson argues that circumstances, not the man in the job, accounts for much of his low 30-percent approval rating, as Wednesday's Quinnipiac University poll found.

“If you're in charge at this particular time in history, probably the worst deficit and the worst economic period we're going to see in our lifetimes, you're going to have to bear the responsibility,” Paterson said.

He's not alone. In Michigan, Arizona and California, each facing critical budget problems, governors all are finding their approval ratings in the 20s or 30s.

“Nobody else cut $30 billion over the last year and a half and nobody else seems to want to say anything about it. You know why? Because once you get into that discussion, you start to be like - a governor,” Paterson told reporters. “Now, when the rest of them get here, we'll see how their poll numbers do.”

“There's a reason the governor of the state of New York is called `his excellency' in the constitution,” Sheinkopf said. “He has extraordinary powers. We're not done with this by a long shot.”

The Citizens' Say

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There are 1 comment(s)

djcolegrove wrote on Oct 26, 2009 9:49 AM:

" As usual, the political "experts" are simply following the crowd, afraid to think independently.
All the premature talk about Gov. Patterson's demise is just that - premature.
He's been making the tough decisions and budget cuts he said he would make. Where are all the conservatives? "

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