Guy Cosentino: Paterson can't win with this decision

By Guy Cosentino

Thursday, December 4, 2008 12:08 AM EST

While it looked to be inevitable for at least two weeks, the announcement on Monday by President-elect Barack Obama naming U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to be his secretary of state, puts the pressure now on Gov. David Paterson to name a replacement. As one of those few rights that cannot be infringed upon by the courts or Legislature, who Paterson appoints will say much about him and his thought processes. No matter what he decides, he will likely displease more than he pleases.
Paterson is already hearing from special interest groups suggesting that he has to name someone who has their interests at heart or comes from their communities #- whether they are African Americans (the downside for him politically is that not only is he an African American, but the likely Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith (D-Queens) also is, opening Paterson up to criticism, fair or not, that he favors blacks); Hispanics (an underrepresented group in the top leadership within state government and might be a stop to the three Democrats holding out on naming Smith as majority leader; or women (the departure of Clinton as well as New York's Chief Judge, Judith Kaye, leaves New York without a woman in the top tier of the state's leadership). And that is only one part of the equation.

The political dynamics of naming someone like one of his possible two opponents in 2010, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo or Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, has its benefits. So does naming an upstater, who Paterson might hope will help in his own campaign in 2010. This is the short, but common, list of issues that will likely come into play as he mulls his decision.

If you see a common theme, it is that Paterson will be damned by some group or faction, no matter who he appoints. If anything, his best bet is to find someone who will serve just two years and open the process up to voters in 2010. Yet, that will aggravate Democratic leaders that want to keep that seat Democratic, which is easier when an incumbent, even an appointed one, seeks election to the remaining two years of Clinton's term ending in 2012.

There will be immense pressure for him to name someone sooner than later, though Paterson has said he will wait until the confirmation process is completed by the U.S. Senate before making a public announcement. Once that is done, he will have a very narrow window if he wants to have two New York senators voting on what is likely to be very critical legislation in the first few months of an Obama Administration.

Cosentino is a former mayor of Auburn and can be contacted at cozguytho@aol.com

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