Guy Cosentino: Senate looks to be in flux next two years

By Guy Cosentino

Tuesday, November 11, 2008 11:53 PM EST

Assuming that prospective new Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith can keep the so called “Gang of Four” (now really three, with one defecting last week) Democratic senators in harness #- for the first time since 1965 the New York State Senate will be controlled by the Democratic Party and for the first time since 1935, Democrats will hold both houses of the Legislature and the governor's office.
One party control does not, in itself, mean stability for state government #- if anything, expect a great deal of political maneuvering #- to the point of gridlock when it comes to the tenuous position Senate Democrats having a two seat advantage at this point (absentee ballots will decide a seat now held by the GOP this week).

Expect this “Gang of Three” to be brought back or kept in the Democratic fold for two reasons. The first is pure politics #- with national and state Democrats sweeping victories #- going “rogue” at this point will not serve their cause #- they do not need to be political pariahs.

At the same time, expect that they will be able to cut political deals to help set the Senate's agenda. For example, one of the group is an avowed opponent of any legislation that supports gay marriage #- expect, at least privately, that Smith will make sure that no such bill makes it to the Senate Floor to keep his slim majority together.

Such deal making will be symptomatic of the next two years as Senate Democrats try to enlarge their majority and Republicans try to win it back. For the GOP it is critical, if they want to be able to keep Democrats from having total control of the redistricting process that will create “incumbent friendly” districts for the following decade. Without control of the governor's office (at this point Gov. David Paterson is still the odds on favorite for 2010) or either the Assembly or Senate #- the GOP could be out of power for years, if not decades.

During the same period, look to see Democrats try to pick off members of the GOP minority, with political appointments or clearing the way for some to run for other offices, especially judgeships. Don't be surprised if the Democrats target #- the seven GOP senators with enticements such as appointments. While they won't be able to appoint their replacements, in each case it will give them a chance to run a Democrat in a special election to try to pick up a seat #- as they did earlier this year with Darrel Aubertine. If Democrats can pick off just one or two, it makes their ability to control the Senate after 2010 and into re-districting even easier.

All this means is that the Senate will concentrate more on politics than policy.

Cosentino is a former mayor of Auburn and can be contacted at cozguytho@aol.com

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There are 1 comment(s)

Brian33908 wrote on Nov 13, 2008 9:54 AM:

" I wonder if the senate Democratic leadership will marginalize the GOP in the same way they were marginalized. I sure hope not. It serves no one. "

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