Our View: Long-range projections a good idea

Tuesday, October 28, 2008 11:45 PM EDT

The Southern Cayuga Central School District isn't wasting any time focusing on the future, and we hope other area school districts are paying attention.
Just two weeks after appointing a 20-member long-range planning committee, the school board agreed to spend a nominal amount of money for an outside researcher to come up with a projection of future enrollment.

Though one board member hedged at the idea out of concern that it would be used as part of an argument to close a specific school building, and another questioned the need for an outside source when the district's internal projections have proven to be accurate in the past, the approval of the study makes sense as the district looks at long-range facilities planning.

Nobody in education is eager to consolidate classrooms or schools - especially when it would mean job losses - but educators should know better than most that hiding one's head in the sand is no way to face trouble.

Compiling as much information as possible about future enrollment numbers will help give school administrators another tool to assess their options and make smart choices for the future of the district.

With the state's finances in the worst shape in decades, the already tenuous nature of state aid for schools is likely to be more unpredictable than ever in the coming years.

And the changing demographics of this region mean that schools need to prepare for the very real possibility of further population declines.

Because much of the cost of Southern Cayuga's analysis will be covered by state aid, the district is only spending about $1,200 to get the information.

Southern Cayuga is smart to look at long-range enrollment projections. It's an idea that makes sense to all of our local school districts.

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