The basic democratic premise is simple: every vote counts and can make all the difference. Yet, when it comes to presidential politics, that is not always the case, as was made clear by Time Magazine's Chief Political Analyst Mark Halperin, earlier this month, in a talk at Wells College.

Anyone who follows politics knows that the last two elections were decided, not by the popular vote (ask former Vice President Al Gore) but electoral votes (Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004). And it looks, from most indications, at this point, that to get to the magic number of 270 electoral votes, only a handful of states will decide who takes the 35-word presidential oath of office on Jan. 20. In 2004, a swing of just Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, would have made George W. Bush a one-term president, like his father.

There are numerous analyses that list a handful of states in play, the number can include up to 30 states. Yet, according to the former ABC News political director Halperin, Nov. 4 comes down to four states - two won by Democrats the last two go-arounds, Michigan (17 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (21), and two won by Republicans, Colorado (9) and Virginia (13). A swing within these key battleground states, in his view, will determine the 44th president of the United States.

While these states may be more magenta or purple than stark blue or red, they are, with the exception of Pennsylvania, not the ones you think about when it comes to determining who sits in the Oval Office. This year, a number of factors come into play when it comes to these four according to Halperin.

Take the state of Michigan, with its strong labor connections. It should be an easy pick-up for its nearby neighbor, Sen. Barrack Obama, R-Ill. Yet, the GOP is contesting the state that Obama lost during the primaries to Sen. Hillary Clinton. The same goes for Pennsylvania. Complicating the political picture in Michigan is the resignation of Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, who is black. The fallout from his departure and its impact on the race for the White House seems yet to be determined.

New Yorkers will have their votes counted on Election Day, but unless something seriously changes within the political landscape, Obama can count the Empire State in his column - that is why you may see him in Detroit, Denver, Philadelphia and Richmond rather than in Albany, Buffalo or Syracuse. So while your vote will count, it will be states like the above four that will have more of an impact on who wins.

Cosentino is a former mayor of Auburn and can be contacted at cozguytho@aol.com