Remember back in 1992? George Bush the First was riding the triumphant victory in Operation Desert Storm into huge approval ratings. Three times that of his much-maligned son, at around 90 percent! As we grew closer and closer to the presidential election however, his ratings fell faster than Rob Lowe's career after his teenage porn tape. By the time November hit we had elected a relative unknown as president in Bill Clinton. Even loony third party candidate H. Ross Perot gobbled up 19 percent of the popular vote.
Final tally was this: Clinton 43 percent, Bush 38 percent, Perot 19 percent.
How do you go from 90 percent approval to a loss in such a short period of time? Why don't you ask Democrat strategist James Carville that question. He helped, more than any other person, Bill Clinton win the election. It's the economy, stupid was the mantra. And the American public bought it, hook line and sinker.
Never underestimate the ignorance of the American people.
Or the power of the mainstream media for that matter. Carville painted Bush as a tax and spender, which is precisely what his party lives by. The attention shifted away from foreign policy and into people's pocketbooks.
2008 will be no different. All of the talk of Iraq, terrorism, Afghanistan, American perception around the world, housing, rebates, reparations, reverends, primaries, and so on will be irrelevant. The only thing that will matter to Americans will be the number that they see at the gas stations. That will be the sole reason that people vote and care.
Truth be told, I feel the pinch more at the grocery store. I realize gas affects those prices as well. But the hysteria of the pumps is getting absurd. Last year at this time it was a dollar or so less a gallon. So what are we talking, $40 or so bucks a month? Heck, your rebate check covers the year. But advertisements, news stories, talk show hosts, speeches, and all around the water cooler the talk is the price of gasoline. Not per barrel, that means little to the average Joe. The only thing that matters is the number at the pump. People actually think they were recently paying two or three times less for gas! In truth, gas was over $3 a gallon as far back as eight years ago. And it has been around $2.75 to $3 since.
Democrats are sleazy and Republicans are stupid. This has been the case since the untimely death of Ronald Reagan strategist Lee Atwater almost 20 years ago. This creed will ring true again. The Dems and the Obamanation (a double pun) will lay the blame solely on Georgie and paint Johnny as Georgie's friend. They will triumph in the gas war. They will disregard the basic truths to this gas problem:
• The gas situation did not get really bad until the Democrats took Congress.
• The Democrats and their environmentalist lobby money are not even considering drilling our own oil.
• We by many estimates have 500 years of oil in Alaska. We found even more in North Dakota. We have unimaginably huge amounts off our coastlines and could drill like Brazil does theirs.
• We could use nuclear energy like 80 percent of France's energy. The environmentalists will not consider this.
• The media does not even entertain the thought of our own oil.
• We are so consumed with “alternative” energy that we refuse to look at the above options. Sure, the alternatives will be good in the future, but for now ... why rely on the socialists and terrorists for our oil?
• Your state and federal governments are getting rich off of the gas prices.
• It is the Democrats in Congress that vote our own drilling down.
Drilling our own oil is a pipe in the ground, seriously. It is just that simple. A pipe in the ground. Perhaps it will force a Snowy-Owl or Whiskered Auklet bird to move to another tree. That is it.
Sadly, gas prices will continue to rise. People will continue to complain and panic. They will notice what for most is an extra $10 a week at the pump much more than their taxes being hiked, food costs, all of it. Because that is what they see and understand.
Barack H. Obama will find a way to make this his issue. John McCain will still be talking foreign policy and anti-terrorism. Remember, the Dems are sleazy and the GOP stupid. They will never get it. Not to mention the Republicans keep running Harry Truman-like candidates in red clothing. The only solace I take is knowing that if McCain won in November it would ruin the Republican Party for decades. A loss might eventually bring them a Reagan again.
A loss to me is a lock. Obama wins easily. I have said it since February. Gas prices will be a major reason why. They are already picking “Average Joe's” to deliver the Democrat response speeches. A response that was both mathematically and factually incorrect.
If you care about your country and your pocketbooks you would be calling your Congressional representatives now!
Drill our own oil, stop letting the Democrats block it!
You won't though. Your apathy is half the problem. You will just complain about the little numbers on the big blue signs.
It's the gas prices, stupid!
Kufs writes from Auburn
How do you go from 90 percent approval to a loss in such a short period of time? Why don't you ask Democrat strategist James Carville that question. He helped, more than any other person, Bill Clinton win the election. It's the economy, stupid was the mantra. And the American public bought it, hook line and sinker.
Never underestimate the ignorance of the American people.
Or the power of the mainstream media for that matter. Carville painted Bush as a tax and spender, which is precisely what his party lives by. The attention shifted away from foreign policy and into people's pocketbooks.
2008 will be no different. All of the talk of Iraq, terrorism, Afghanistan, American perception around the world, housing, rebates, reparations, reverends, primaries, and so on will be irrelevant. The only thing that will matter to Americans will be the number that they see at the gas stations. That will be the sole reason that people vote and care.
Truth be told, I feel the pinch more at the grocery store. I realize gas affects those prices as well. But the hysteria of the pumps is getting absurd. Last year at this time it was a dollar or so less a gallon. So what are we talking, $40 or so bucks a month? Heck, your rebate check covers the year. But advertisements, news stories, talk show hosts, speeches, and all around the water cooler the talk is the price of gasoline. Not per barrel, that means little to the average Joe. The only thing that matters is the number at the pump. People actually think they were recently paying two or three times less for gas! In truth, gas was over $3 a gallon as far back as eight years ago. And it has been around $2.75 to $3 since.
Democrats are sleazy and Republicans are stupid. This has been the case since the untimely death of Ronald Reagan strategist Lee Atwater almost 20 years ago. This creed will ring true again. The Dems and the Obamanation (a double pun) will lay the blame solely on Georgie and paint Johnny as Georgie's friend. They will triumph in the gas war. They will disregard the basic truths to this gas problem:
• The gas situation did not get really bad until the Democrats took Congress.
• The Democrats and their environmentalist lobby money are not even considering drilling our own oil.
• We by many estimates have 500 years of oil in Alaska. We found even more in North Dakota. We have unimaginably huge amounts off our coastlines and could drill like Brazil does theirs.
• We could use nuclear energy like 80 percent of France's energy. The environmentalists will not consider this.
• The media does not even entertain the thought of our own oil.
• We are so consumed with “alternative” energy that we refuse to look at the above options. Sure, the alternatives will be good in the future, but for now ... why rely on the socialists and terrorists for our oil?
• Your state and federal governments are getting rich off of the gas prices.
• It is the Democrats in Congress that vote our own drilling down.
Drilling our own oil is a pipe in the ground, seriously. It is just that simple. A pipe in the ground. Perhaps it will force a Snowy-Owl or Whiskered Auklet bird to move to another tree. That is it.
Sadly, gas prices will continue to rise. People will continue to complain and panic. They will notice what for most is an extra $10 a week at the pump much more than their taxes being hiked, food costs, all of it. Because that is what they see and understand.
Barack H. Obama will find a way to make this his issue. John McCain will still be talking foreign policy and anti-terrorism. Remember, the Dems are sleazy and the GOP stupid. They will never get it. Not to mention the Republicans keep running Harry Truman-like candidates in red clothing. The only solace I take is knowing that if McCain won in November it would ruin the Republican Party for decades. A loss might eventually bring them a Reagan again.
A loss to me is a lock. Obama wins easily. I have said it since February. Gas prices will be a major reason why. They are already picking “Average Joe's” to deliver the Democrat response speeches. A response that was both mathematically and factually incorrect.
If you care about your country and your pocketbooks you would be calling your Congressional representatives now!
Drill our own oil, stop letting the Democrats block it!
You won't though. Your apathy is half the problem. You will just complain about the little numbers on the big blue signs.
It's the gas prices, stupid!
Kufs writes from Auburn
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AJ wrote on Jun 20, 2008 4:02 PM:
AJ wrote on Jun 20, 2008 3:57 PM:
" Thanks, Karl, for putting it in a nutshell for me and other readers. Economics and finance are not my strong suit and it helps to have things explained in a way a layperson can understand. I'd been hearing bits and pieces of this and not really putting it together in my mind.
Don't worry about the ineffectual detractors posting here -- there are those who don't WANT to believe what's going on, so all the facts and logically laid-out arguments in the world will not change their minds - Desire to believe trumps all for them, reality be d*mned. These are the same folks who still believe there is a simple solution to things, like a pill for every ill -- "Drill and all will be well." Pfah! The world is not black and white, and the complexity and interrelation of things can be mind-boggling. THAT is reality. "
I don't think anyone could have said it better, FG. You are so right! "
AJ wrote on Jun 20, 2008 3:53 PM:
DD, get a grip will you? "
dan w wrote on Jun 20, 2008 1:12 PM:
karl wrote on Jun 20, 2008 11:42 AM:
karl wrote on Jun 20, 2008 10:46 AM:
By the way, nobody left me an "expert on oil" Pete V--just wait until you read my next letter about the "drill our own oil" farce!
Thanks Farmer's Gal! Nice to see there are some sensible people out there! "
cm wrote on Jun 20, 2008 10:35 AM:
I am not sure if its the "loophole" causing the effects-but here's more:
Drilling IS needed-it has both up/downs sides.
The UPS: the gulf states economies will benefit especially by jobs. Already in Louisiana Extraction workers are paid 1800.00+ per week. Pipeline jobs are paid 1300.00+ per week.
The DOWNS: environmental/tourism should there be a spill.
There have been over 117 spills since 2000---expanding drilling boundaries should be a priority!
FACTS:
1. More than 80% of the nations offshore oil & gas reserves already can be leased to for drilling. More than 44 million acres of public lands are leased for development, yet only 1/4 are being drilled.?
1/4 is only being drilled because it takes years to get the ball rolling-the environmentalists groups do everything possible to STOP drilling.
So where there is an Ok to drill there are sub-bans/laws stopping it.
2. RIGS: There is a global shortage of drillships! Thus, stopping the ability to exploit known reserves or look for new ones. PLUS,the worlds exisiting drillships are booked for the next 5 years! With such high demand, especially now, the largest builders (Asia) have raised prices from 100 million a vessel to a half- a- billion today for one vessel !!!!
Drilling costs 2002 in the Gulf were 150,000 per day--NOW they are 600,000 per day.
only 16 new drillships are scheduled for delivery this year with a total of 75 by 2011 (worldwide) Chief Exc. Of Transocean states they have 8 contracted under-construction deep-water rigs, yet delivery will be in 2010.
Oil IS going to be the valuable commodity traded in world markets in the future. Rushing to lease offshore areas won't lower world prices, but provide oil companies a valuable entitlement in the future.
Also putting the oil on the open market will sell at the highest price and most likely will go overseas and NOT stay in our country!
SO WHERE does all this leave us citizens?? basically stuck with high prices until atleast 2012.
Yes we need to drill, but we need to pass some better laws for it. Such as stopping ALL of it being sold overseas, the higher % should stay in OUR country for use!
The environmentalists need to compromise better-we cannot save every bird/fish when humans needs to survive too.
We need to open all doors of energy resources and NOT just rely on drilling.
We do need to get away from OPEC.
We all need to do what we can in our own Backyards! "
fedupnorth wrote on Jun 20, 2008 9:57 AM:
For those interested in reading a bit more on this:
http://www.cpa.org.au/garchve08/1370oil.html "
Farmer's Gal wrote on Jun 20, 2008 8:10 AM:
Don't worry about the ineffectual detractors posting here -- there are those who don't WANT to believe what's going on, so all the facts and logically laid-out arguments in the world will not change their minds - Desire to believe trumps all for them, reality be d*mned. These are the same folks who still believe there is a simple solution to things, like a pill for every ill -- "Drill and all will be well." Pfah! The world is not black and white, and the complexity and interrelation of things can be mind-boggling. THAT is reality. "
Pete V wrote on Jun 20, 2008 6:32 AM:
dan w wrote on Jun 20, 2008 3:12 AM:
karl wrote on Jun 19, 2008 10:33 PM:
Letters such as Jason Kufs’ “It’s Gas Prices, Stupid!” only prove one thing—how little Conservatives understand about the current Oil crisis and the economy. Not that that should surprise anyone? This is, after all, the party of George W Bush.
Or perhaps,I should say that Conservatives WANT you to think that they believe that the sky-high cost of oil is all the fault of the Democrats, and that the big solution is (trumpets please!) MORE DRILLING! Especially in environmentally sensitive areas.
Which is why, as the Bush regime’s lamentable tenure comes to a close, the “Big Push” is on to open up restricted areas to more drilling. Common sense would seem to dictate that this would help bring the prices down, and make the USA more oil-independent, right?
Wrong.
Here’s the straight facts, folks. And it ain’t pretty.
Forget about Hugo Chavez, China, broken pipelines, hurricane worries, or incontinent camels—those are just the excuses meant to keep you mollified.
The REAL cause is what’s known as “The ENRON Loophole”. In 2000, former Texas oilman and Bush-buddy, ENRON chairman Ken Lay— an indicted criminal on 11 counts of securities and wire fraud before his death—persuaded Congress and federal regulators that the electronic trading markets would be more “efficient” if those transactions and trades were deregulated—essentially, performed without supervision or oversight by US regulators. These unregulated markets are called“Dark Markets”, where investors such as hedges funds and investment bankers can use loopholes in Commodities Law to manipulate the markets without accountability.
US margin rules of the government's Commodity Futures Trading Commission allow speculators to buy a crude oil futures contract on the Nymex, by having to pay only 6% of the value of the contract. At today's price of $128 per barrel, that means a futures trader only has to put up about $8 for every barrel. He borrows the other $120. This extreme 'leverage' of 16 to 1 helps drive prices up to stratospheric levels.
Additionally,because investment banks employ these speculators, by driving the price of Oil to sky-high prices, investment banks can recoup huge losses for things like,oh, say…housing mortgage scandal losses? Of course, ALL raw materials—corn, wheat, copper, etc—are all“commodities”, so by driving these prices up along with Oil, the revenues increase exponentially. Once again, ordinary citizens are bailing out the crooks by paying exorbitant prices.
Nearly two-thirds of the big investment banks' revenue came from the securitization of commercial and residential real estate loans. That market is frozen. The banks are revenue starved'. How are they filling the coffers? They're either neck-deep in interest rate swaps, derivatives trading, or gaming the futures market.
Here's some testimony from Michael W. Masters of Masters Capital Management, LLC, who addressed the issue of 'Commodities Speculation' before the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs this week:
'Today, Index Speculators are pouring billions of dollars into the commodities futures markets, speculating that commodity prices will increase. ...In the popular press the explanation given most often for rising oil prices is the increased demand for oil from China. According to the DOE, annual Chinese demand for petroleum has increased over the last five years from 1.88 billion barrels to 2.8 billion barrels, an increase of 920 million barrels.8 Over the same five-year period, Index Speculators' demand for petroleum futures has increased by 848 million barrels. THE INCREASE IN DEMAND FROM INDEX SPECULATORS IS ALMOST EQUAL TO THE INCREASE IN DEMAND FROM CHINA. Index Speculators have now stockpiled, via the futures market, the equivalent of 1.1 billion barrels of petroleum, effectively adding eight times as much oil to their own stockpile as the United States has added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the last five years. Today, in many commodities futures markets, they are the single largest force.15 The huge growth in their demand has gone virtually undetected by classically- trained economists who almost never analyze demand in futures markets. As money pours into the markets, two things happen concurrently: the markets expand and prices rise. One particularly troubling aspect of Index Speculator demand is that it actually increases the more prices increase. This explains the accelerating rate at which commodity futures prices (and actual commodity prices) are increasing. The CFTC has taken deliberate steps to allow CERTAIN SPECULATORS VIRTUALLY UNLIMITED ACCESS TO THE COMMODITIES FUTURES MARKETS. The CFTC has granted Wall Street banks an exemption from speculative position limits when these banks hedge over-the-counter swaps transactions. This has effectively opened a loophole for unlimited speculation. When Index Speculators enter into commodity index swaps, which 85-90% of them do,they face no speculative position limits.... The result is a gross distortion in data that effectively hides the full impact of Index Speculation. '
So, without oversight and regulation, the whole Commodities Trading racket is like a big casino whee the speculators have the power and ability to put as much of YOUR money into the slot machines as they want, in order to increase the jackpot--only when they 'hit' it, the money goes in THEIR pockets and their buddies--the corrupt investment bankers who brought us the Housing and Loans Scandals, and of course, Big Oil.
Oh, and uh--you should know, that just this week, Senate Republicans used a filibuster to effectively end debate on a measure and law which would restore oversight and regulation to these markets and these out-of-control speculators. Unbelievable--that a law, lobbied for by a since-indicted criminal who caused the utter collapse of one of the world's largest s leading electricity, natural gas, pulp and paper, and communications companies could be lobbied for, defended, and STILL on the books today because of the Republican Party and their friendliness to "Big Business", and their well-reported antipathy to the American people, especially the Middle Class--to say nothing of the Poor, whom their policies hurt the most!
Ironically,it is a the Democrats—led by Senator Diane Feinstein (Ca.) who have been fighting for the last 6 years to close the “Enron Loophole”.
Of course,the frenzied calls for more drilling are just typical diversionary tangents,designed give the Oil companies and their investors exactly what they most want—a guarantee that the US will remain hooked on oil for generations to come.That will be the topic of my next letter. "
karl wrote on Jun 19, 2008 8:16 PM:
budobrubbie wrote on Jun 19, 2008 5:05 PM:
But even at peak production, the EIA analysis said, the U.S. would still have to import about 66% of its oil, as opposed to an expected 70% we didn't tap the ANWAR reserve. Big deal. "
dd wrote on Jun 19, 2008 4:03 PM:
owastocat wrote on Jun 19, 2008 3:53 PM:
Conservatives love themselves and love to hear their their own propaganda (especially from Faux News).
If there was major oil in these supposed sites, why would the government need the oil reserves knowing there's plenty here? Obviously they don't really know. Note: Many republicans blocked drilling as well.
Gas prices have been cheaper in this country for years. The rest of the world took conservation seriously. Now we're standing in line to buy Toyota Prius's.
King George must be proud to leave to his successor a badly damaged country.
-Huge debt to forigners
-Housing mortgage collapse
-Senseless war with Iraq
-Despised by other countries
-The US dollar is worth less in the world
Could go on and on.......... "
Pete V wrote on Jun 19, 2008 3:07 PM:
karl wrote on Jun 19, 2008 2:30 PM:
I swear, the Conservative mailing lobby must reeeeeally be pushing this "Let's drill in ANWAR/Offshore" garbage, with letters and mailings to their "mouthpieces".
Expect a rebuttal. "