Over the next six months, for the most part, local leaders for all but local school districts will be putting their budgets together for cities, counties, towns and villages. They are being told about the increases they are or will be receiving based on the state budget that was passed on April 9. The big question for most will be whether they can count on this money? If they are smart, they will look with a jaundiced eye at what may or may not be coming from the state capitol.

State comptroller Thomas DiNapoli has made it clear that in his mind, this is a “nine-month,” not an annual budget that goes until March 31, 2009. He is looking at the state Legislature going back to Albany, after election day, to deal with what are expected to be large revenue holes for the state. Prior to passage of the budget, the estimate was that New York would have a nearly $5 billion shortfall - there are no indications that this gap was closed in the budget passed less than a month ago.

If anything, all signs point to a worsening fiscal situation. Gov. David Paterson's call for 3 percent cuts within his own executive branch is just the easiest to identify. This year's budget was clearly an “election year budget” - there seemed to be something for everyone.

Look no further than school districts that are receiving even more than what former Gov. Eliot Spitzer originally proposed. As has been all too traditional, the Legislature upped school district spending, as they head into their own re-elections. While some members of the Legislature are bad mouthing the whole budget process, and rightfully so, they are quick to point out that they did specifically vote for increased education spending. No one wants to face a re-election fight, no matter that New York has one of the highest incumbent re-election rates in the nation, with the charge they voted against local schools.

Municipalities also made out well. For example, Aid to Small Cities, a category that has never regained its former glory from the years before Mario M. Cuomo cut it more than 15 years ago, saw a 7 percent increase. But as one local official recently suggested, Albany was “... more generous than the state of the state can endure ...” Just another warning sign for all.

If Albany does, in fact, have to fix its 2008-2009 budget, that started on April 1 by the end of this year, so as to not face a complete fiscal calamity next spring - then local governments would be wise to only count on what they have received checks for and cashed. By the way, the same degree of caution makes sense for school districts, which a few years ago saw Albany cut back aid well into the fiscal year, after taking credit for increases.

Cosentino is a former mayor of Auburn and can be contacted at cozguytho@aol.com