Will the last New York Republican in Congress please turn out the light? Across the Empire State, Democrats buoyed by recent victories are lining up to try to take away more House seats long considered unconquerable.

A presidential race, an unpopular war, and recent Republican losses at the state and federal level point to another intense political year from Buffalo to Ballston Spa. If the Democratic nominee for president is New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, turnout could be fatal for the GOP in the state.

For New York Republicans, the last decade has the feel of an Agatha Christie murder mystery: And then there were six. Of the state's 29 members of Congress, 23 are Democrats. Since 2000, the state's congressional Republicans have lost at least one seat every election and in 2006, they lost three, cutting their ranks in half in just eight years.

Of the remaining GOP House districts, several will face intense efforts from Democrats.

"The picture is not bright," said Gerald Benjamin, a politics professor at SUNY New Paltz, who said New York may soon look politically like neighboring Massachusetts, where the Democratic party holds all the congressional seats and all the power.

"The rural areas of New York are still Republican, but that's 3 million people out of about 19 or 20 million," he said. "I think it's bad, not only because I'm a Republican, but it's bad not to have a competitive system."

Long Island congressman Steve Israel, who recruits House candidates for the Democrats, claimed all six GOP seats are in play, though he conceded they have yet to find a candidate to challenge Rep. Peter King, also of Long Island.

"We believe that we're positioned to take between four and six of them," said Israel.

In the state's Southern Tier, Republican congressman Randy Kuhl said Democrats are less appealing to voters this time, precisely because they did so well in 2006 and have been running Congress for more than a year. Elected in large part on pledges to end the Iraq war, Democrats have instead seen President Bush increase the number of troops there, and veto numerous pieces of Democratic legislation.

"The Democratic majority has not provided the change, nor the answers," Kuhl said. Voters, he argued, "want the politics to stop."

Kuhl is headed for a rematch with former Navy commander Eric Massa, who so far has raised more money than the incumbent in a conservative district bigger than Connecticut.

The Democrats' best chance to gain a seat is in Syracuse, where long-serving Republican James Walsh is retiring. Walsh narrowly defeated former congressional aide Dan Maffei in 2006, and Maffei will have much stronger organizational support and name recognition this time around.

"Last time, we were seen as such a long shot. This time, there is a tendency among some of my supporters where people say, 'Gosh, it should be so easy,'" said Maffei. "Sometimes it takes two races to convince enough people."

On the other side, the Republicans' best hope to win one back seems to be Sandy Treadwell, former head of the state GOP, who is challenging freshman Kirsten Gillibrand in a Hudson River Valley district where the GOP has a decided advantage in party registration. But Gillibrand has proven an adept fundraiser and knocked off incumbent John Sweeney two years ago.

National Republican Campaign Committee spokesman Ken Spain said their candidates "will not only retain the open seat being vacated by Jim Walsh, but we plan to be on offense against Kirsten Gillibrand and Michael Arcuri. They have quickly accumulated liberal records of tax hikes and runaway spending and they will be held to account."

For Republicans who remember the heady days of a state dominated by Republican Gov. Nelson Rockefeller and his moderate brand of politics, the new millennium has been a long run of losing bets. The question for them is, when will their losing streak finally end?

In western New York, Rep. Tom Reynolds, who has seen his formidable clout diminish with the fortunes of his state and national party, could be aided by Democratic infighting.

Reynolds has twice defeated millionaire Jack Davis, an outspoken and unorthodox critic of free trade.

This time, lawyer Alice Kryzan and a young Iraq war veteran, former Army Capt. Jon Powers, are also seeking to run against Reynolds. Powers has lined up a lot of early endorsements, but Davis already has millions to spend. The businessman is assembling a staff but has yet to formally enter the race.

Reynolds is a veteran campaigner who has survived tough challenges, and a three-way Democratic primary could give him a healthy head start.

Davis is already taking tough shots.

Powers, Davis said, "is a kid. He's 29 years old and he's never had a real job," said Davis. "If we do get into a primary, he won't have any money left."

Yet even if the Republicans weather this year, the next decade may see more defeats — not from the polls, but the pens of Albany lawmakers.

If the Democrats succeed in capturing control of the state senate, they could be the ones redrawing congressional districts after the 2010 census. Republicans have a 32-30 majority in the Senate after a special election last month put a Democrat in office in a district that had been Republican for more than 120 years.

And with New York expected to lose at least one congressional seat overall due to national population changes, Albany Democrats may well draw lines that hurt or outright obliterate Republicans.

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