SYRACUSE - A nasty and expensive campaign to win a rural upstate Senate seat traditionally held by Republicans could signal whether the GOP will keep its four decade-long grip on the Senate.
The race for New York's 48th Senate District between Democrat Darrel Aubertine and Republican Will Barclay has been marked by stinging personal attacks and negative ads, a lawsuit over who gets the Independence Party line, and big money.
Each candidate has raised close to $1 million ahead of Tuesday's special election to represent the district that runs along eastern Lake Ontario and includes Oswego and Jefferson counties, and parts of St. Lawrence County.
“It may be a bellwether for what's to come in traditional Republican territories in upstate New York for the fall election,” said Robert Spitzer, a political science professor at the State University of New York at Cortland. “There's a lot on the line. (Senate Majority Leader) Joe Bruno knows he is going to face an uphill battle to keep control of the Senate this year.”
Aubertine is a dairy farmer from Cape Vincent, first elected to the Assembly in 2002. Barclay, too, was elected in 2002 from the adjacent Assembly district. His father, H. Douglas Barclay, served in the New York Senate from 1965 to 1984.
Former Sen. Jim Wright retired in January after 15 years to take a consulting job. His departure leaves the Republicans with a 32-29 edge in the Senate, where they have held power since the mid-1960s. Democrats control the Assembly and the governor's mansion and have chipped away at Republicans in the Senate over the past decade.
The GOP lost a seat in a special election on Long Island last year when Craig Johnson was elected as the first Democrat from the 7th Senate District in a century. Besides losing another seat, an Aubertine win could prompt more GOP senators to retire.
“Every senate election is a tightrope walk now,” said Maurice Carroll, director of Quinnipiac University's Polling Institute. “They only have to lose two and they're gone - and when they go, they may never get back.”
Enrollment favors Barclay: As of Nov. 1, there were 78,454 registered Republicans in the district, compared to 46,824 Democrats. The region also has a long history as a GOP stronghold, so it was assumed the seat was safe, said Jeff Stonecash, who teaches political science at Syracuse University's Maxwell School.
Aubertine, with the backing of the state party and some of its heavyweights, including U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer, has made the race a toss-up.
Campaign records showed Aubertine had raised $953,742 through mid-February, including about $855,000 from the state Democratic Committee. Barclay reported raising $879,180 over that time, including about $800,000 from the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, controlled by Bruno.
Issues - the region's loss of jobs, education, taxes - became secondary almost immediately as the two candidates traded charges and countercharges.
In one recent attack, Barclay accused Aubertine of paying $70 to $100 a day to get people to work on his campaign on behalf of the Working Families Party, which had endorsed Aubertine. In response, Aubertine supporters noted the state Correctional Officers & Police Benevolent Association paid workers $150 and reimbursed them for mileage to attend a Barclay rally in Watertown in January. The union endorsed Barclay.
The campaign reached an ugly point when Aubertine ran a television spot in which a fishing guide criticized the Barclay family's decision to control fishing rights on a one-mile stretch of the popular Salmon River. After the ad, the guide publicly apologized to Barclay's family and said he had never fished the river with his grandfather, explaining he had read from a script.
Aubertine awkwardly admitted the narrative was intended to represent a “compilation” of local fishermen's complaints. But his campaign then claimed that Barclay operatives pressured the fishing guide, who was subsequently arrested for drunk driving after having drinks with a Republican county lawmaker.
Early in the campaign, Barclay worked to tie Aubertine to Eliot Spitzer, especially the governor's ill-fated proposal to allow illegal immigrants to obtain driver's licenses. Barclay portrayed his opponent as beholden to downstate interests.
Aubertine tried to link Barclay with the outsourcing of many of the region's manufacturing jobs - a sore point in a region that regularly suffers some of the state's highest unemployment rates.
The two candidates took each other to court over who would get the Independence Party line. A judge ruled the line would be left blank.
Even without the extra line, though, the Democrats have an opportunity, said Stonecash.
“Conditions are not good for the Republican Party in this state right now,” he said. “Iraq is unpopular. George Bush is unpopular. The national Republican Party has moved more conservative ... and it doesn't sell well upstate.”
A wild card in Tuesday's election might be the district's nearly 35,000 independents - about one in every five voters.
“The question is whether they will show up and vote,” Stonecash said. “Historically, independents don't vote as often as partisans do. If one side or the other can get those voters out, then it might be a factor.”
AP-ES-02-19-08 1244EST
Each candidate has raised close to $1 million ahead of Tuesday's special election to represent the district that runs along eastern Lake Ontario and includes Oswego and Jefferson counties, and parts of St. Lawrence County.
“It may be a bellwether for what's to come in traditional Republican territories in upstate New York for the fall election,” said Robert Spitzer, a political science professor at the State University of New York at Cortland. “There's a lot on the line. (Senate Majority Leader) Joe Bruno knows he is going to face an uphill battle to keep control of the Senate this year.”
Aubertine is a dairy farmer from Cape Vincent, first elected to the Assembly in 2002. Barclay, too, was elected in 2002 from the adjacent Assembly district. His father, H. Douglas Barclay, served in the New York Senate from 1965 to 1984.
Former Sen. Jim Wright retired in January after 15 years to take a consulting job. His departure leaves the Republicans with a 32-29 edge in the Senate, where they have held power since the mid-1960s. Democrats control the Assembly and the governor's mansion and have chipped away at Republicans in the Senate over the past decade.
The GOP lost a seat in a special election on Long Island last year when Craig Johnson was elected as the first Democrat from the 7th Senate District in a century. Besides losing another seat, an Aubertine win could prompt more GOP senators to retire.
“Every senate election is a tightrope walk now,” said Maurice Carroll, director of Quinnipiac University's Polling Institute. “They only have to lose two and they're gone - and when they go, they may never get back.”
Enrollment favors Barclay: As of Nov. 1, there were 78,454 registered Republicans in the district, compared to 46,824 Democrats. The region also has a long history as a GOP stronghold, so it was assumed the seat was safe, said Jeff Stonecash, who teaches political science at Syracuse University's Maxwell School.
Aubertine, with the backing of the state party and some of its heavyweights, including U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer, has made the race a toss-up.
Campaign records showed Aubertine had raised $953,742 through mid-February, including about $855,000 from the state Democratic Committee. Barclay reported raising $879,180 over that time, including about $800,000 from the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, controlled by Bruno.
Issues - the region's loss of jobs, education, taxes - became secondary almost immediately as the two candidates traded charges and countercharges.
In one recent attack, Barclay accused Aubertine of paying $70 to $100 a day to get people to work on his campaign on behalf of the Working Families Party, which had endorsed Aubertine. In response, Aubertine supporters noted the state Correctional Officers & Police Benevolent Association paid workers $150 and reimbursed them for mileage to attend a Barclay rally in Watertown in January. The union endorsed Barclay.
The campaign reached an ugly point when Aubertine ran a television spot in which a fishing guide criticized the Barclay family's decision to control fishing rights on a one-mile stretch of the popular Salmon River. After the ad, the guide publicly apologized to Barclay's family and said he had never fished the river with his grandfather, explaining he had read from a script.
Aubertine awkwardly admitted the narrative was intended to represent a “compilation” of local fishermen's complaints. But his campaign then claimed that Barclay operatives pressured the fishing guide, who was subsequently arrested for drunk driving after having drinks with a Republican county lawmaker.
Early in the campaign, Barclay worked to tie Aubertine to Eliot Spitzer, especially the governor's ill-fated proposal to allow illegal immigrants to obtain driver's licenses. Barclay portrayed his opponent as beholden to downstate interests.
Aubertine tried to link Barclay with the outsourcing of many of the region's manufacturing jobs - a sore point in a region that regularly suffers some of the state's highest unemployment rates.
The two candidates took each other to court over who would get the Independence Party line. A judge ruled the line would be left blank.
Even without the extra line, though, the Democrats have an opportunity, said Stonecash.
“Conditions are not good for the Republican Party in this state right now,” he said. “Iraq is unpopular. George Bush is unpopular. The national Republican Party has moved more conservative ... and it doesn't sell well upstate.”
A wild card in Tuesday's election might be the district's nearly 35,000 independents - about one in every five voters.
“The question is whether they will show up and vote,” Stonecash said. “Historically, independents don't vote as often as partisans do. If one side or the other can get those voters out, then it might be a factor.”
AP-ES-02-19-08 1244EST
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