New poll: Obama cuts into Clinton lead in N.Y.

By: The Associated Press

Monday, February 4, 2008 12:17 PM EST

ALBANY -- Barack Obama has cut into Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's home state lead but still trails 53 percent to 39 percent on the eve of New York's Super Tuesday presidential primary, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.
The poll also showed Republican John McCain stretching his lead over Mitt Romney, 54 percent to 22 percent. Mike Huckabee was third at 9 percent and Ron Paul had 5 percent. In a Jan. 22 poll that included Rudy Giuliani, McCain led Romney 30 percent to 9 percent. After betting his whole campaign on Florida, Giuliani finished a weak third there, dropped out on Wednesday and endorsed McCain.

In the earlier Quinnipiac poll, Clinton led Obama, her last rival for the Democratic nomination, 51 percent to 25 percent. John Edwards picked up 11 percent in that poll. He dropped out last week and has not endorsed anybody yet.

"Sen. Obama has gained yardage in New York, but the clock is running out and Sen. Clinton still has the home field advantage," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

New York has the second biggest delegate haul on Super Tuesday, with 232 Democratic delegates and 101 Republican delegates at stake. Only California has more delegates in the balance on Tuesday.

Even if Clinton wins the popular vote, Obama can still grab delegates. In New York, any candidate who gets 15 percent of the vote in any of the state's 29 congressional districts gets a share of that district's delegates. Of the 232, 151 are allocated that way while the remaining 81 are split up based on the popular vote.

"We appreciate the outpouring of grass roots enthusiasm for Hillary here and have thousands of volunteers across the state working to harness that energy and bring out the vote for her tomorrow," said campaign spokesman Blake Zeff.

The Republican primary in New York is a winner-take-all contest.

Obama attracted support from 68 percent of black voters polled in New York compared to 27 percent for Clinton, while the former first lady was popular with women, 55 percent to 37 percent for Obama.

When Giuliani dropped out, statewide GOP support swung immediately to McCain. But he wasn't always this popular with New York politicians. In the 2000 primary, party bosses tried to keep him off the ballot against George Bush, causing him to decry the party's "Stalinist politics." After a court fight, the party relented.

"Sen. McCain, once written off for dead, is poised for a big win in New York, while Gov. Romney could be going home early," Carroll said.

The poll was conducted from Jan. 30 to Feb. 3 and surveyed 370 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of 5.1 percent, and 517 likely Democratic voters with a margin of error 4.3 percent.

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