With “Super Tuesday” fast approaching, New York's primaries may not be cut and dried. Although Hillary Clinton maintains a comfortable lead in the Democratic field, I wouldn't be surprised if Barack Obama is able to squeak out a win.
Obama appeals to young voters and minorities, ironically the demographic that solidified Bill Clinton's presidency. Obama has also managed to garner some impressive endorsements, including Senator John Kerry, Caroline Kennedy and, it is rumored, Ted Kennedy.
A junior senator from New York, Clinton has the advantage of having campaigned heavily in the region. But Clinton has never been popular in rural upstate regions, outside of New York City. In fact, many Democrats believe as though Clinton spent most of her term in the Senate planning her presidency, as opposed to focusing on state issues. And John Edwards' distant third place finish in South Carolina proves that you can't count on loyalties at home.
Like Edwards, Rudy Giuliani is also trailing on the home front. Critics agree that Giuliani's concentrated efforts in Florida have left New York voters ostracized. A risky gamble that may not pay off, as Florida Gov. Charlie Crist recently threw his support behind Senator John McCain.
In what was supposed to have been a sure nomination for Giuliani, Mitt Romney and McCain have been consistently strong in the polls forcing Giuliani to modify his campaign strategy. Giuliani now argues that he is a perfect combination of his opponents, encompassing McCain's foreign policy strength and Romney's economic know-how; a move that only validates the increasing threat that both candidates pose to his campaign.
As for the Democrats, political analysts give Clinton the edge in New York, but no one denies that the race is still pretty tight. Clinton undoubtedly has the best funded and organized campaign, but as more and more prominent Democrats come out in favor of Obama, Clinton's funding may not be enough to offset the Kennedy aura.
On the Republican side, conservative Christian voters have responded favorably to the Romney campaign. A practicing Mormon, Romney's presence in the race was largely ignored early on. But Romney has managed to continue his momentum and is considered by many to be the best bet for the GOP nod.
Bottom line: if things keep unfolding as they have been, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Mormon and an African-American batting it out for the office of the presidency and frankly, I'd welcome such an outcome. Regardless of race, religion or party - I think everyone can agree that America is long overdue for a radical change.
Estabrook's column appears Mondays and she can be reached at estabrookcarole@yahoo.com
A junior senator from New York, Clinton has the advantage of having campaigned heavily in the region. But Clinton has never been popular in rural upstate regions, outside of New York City. In fact, many Democrats believe as though Clinton spent most of her term in the Senate planning her presidency, as opposed to focusing on state issues. And John Edwards' distant third place finish in South Carolina proves that you can't count on loyalties at home.
Like Edwards, Rudy Giuliani is also trailing on the home front. Critics agree that Giuliani's concentrated efforts in Florida have left New York voters ostracized. A risky gamble that may not pay off, as Florida Gov. Charlie Crist recently threw his support behind Senator John McCain.
In what was supposed to have been a sure nomination for Giuliani, Mitt Romney and McCain have been consistently strong in the polls forcing Giuliani to modify his campaign strategy. Giuliani now argues that he is a perfect combination of his opponents, encompassing McCain's foreign policy strength and Romney's economic know-how; a move that only validates the increasing threat that both candidates pose to his campaign.
As for the Democrats, political analysts give Clinton the edge in New York, but no one denies that the race is still pretty tight. Clinton undoubtedly has the best funded and organized campaign, but as more and more prominent Democrats come out in favor of Obama, Clinton's funding may not be enough to offset the Kennedy aura.
On the Republican side, conservative Christian voters have responded favorably to the Romney campaign. A practicing Mormon, Romney's presence in the race was largely ignored early on. But Romney has managed to continue his momentum and is considered by many to be the best bet for the GOP nod.
Bottom line: if things keep unfolding as they have been, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Mormon and an African-American batting it out for the office of the presidency and frankly, I'd welcome such an outcome. Regardless of race, religion or party - I think everyone can agree that America is long overdue for a radical change.
Estabrook's column appears Mondays and she can be reached at estabrookcarole@yahoo.com