Not A Done Deal

By Christopher Caskey / The Citizen

Saturday, January 26, 2008 11:06 PM EST

Debates among party hopefuls are getting testy. Campaign commercials are running strong. And next week, almost half of the states will hold their primaries Feb. 5 on what has become known as “Super Tuesday.”
One of those states will be New York, which after being considered a foregone conclusion, suddenly finds itself in play.

U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton sits with a healthy lead among state Democrats over her competition. But former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is not looking as strong, with recent polls showing that he trails John McCain on Giuliani's home turf.

While the fireworks fly at the top, local Republican and Democratic committees will wait until nominees are chosen at the national conventions to get involved with presidential campaigns. Party leaders say that local interest in the election is already strong, and some individuals have chosen sides in the primaries. But the real fun won't begin for a while longer.

“We probably won't have a candidate until September, at the nominating committee,” said Cherl Heary, chairwoman for the Cayuga County Republican Committee. “Normally we don't do a whole lot (for the primaries), unless we are contacted by one of the candidates' campaigns.”

Heary said there are individuals in the county committee who are backing candidates in the primary. Since the national committee has not chosen a Republican nominee, each candidate is handling his own campaign in the region. People who have wanted to get involved have done so through the individual campaign, she said.

Heary is personally a Giuliani supporter, much like most of the state's committee chairs, she said. And when news came out that polls showed Giuliani trailing, state Republican Committee Chairman Joseph Mondello released a statement showing his support for the former mayor.

But Heary said she has received calls from locals who want to get involved with the McCain campaign. She has also heard from other county chairs who have been contacted by the Arizona senator's campaign. On Friday, McCain opened a New York office in the Albany region.

“I think it is really an open field, which gives a lot of people a chance to get involved,” Heary said.

Like with the GOP campaigners, local Democrats can support their choice in the primary as the county committee waits to officially back a candidate, said Katie Lacey, chairwoman for the Cayuga County Democratic Committee. Local Democrats will also meet at the Blarney Stone to watch and discuss the returns on Feb. 5.

However, Lacey said she sees a lot of overall support upstate for Clinton, as the senator already has a built-in presence from prior campaigns.

“She has been here a lot, and it would be quite a treat to have someone in the White House who actually knows where Auburn is,” Lacey said.

Wide Open

Despite Clinton's double-digit lead over Barack Obama in New York and Giuliani's support from committee chairs from around the state, this election appears to be the most wide-open in decades.

Robert Spitzer, a political science professor at State University of New York at Cortland, and author of several books on state and national politics, said that it has been a long time since neither the Democrats nor Republicans have an heir-apparent for the presidential bid.

“The last time the race was this wide open in both parties, I would say, was in 1952,” Spitzer said, referring to the year incumbent Harry Truman did not run for re-election and Dwight Eisenhower squared off against Adlai Stevenson. “That is one thing that makes this election year so unique. There are major struggles for the nomination in both parties.”

With such an open field, Spitzer said upstate residents could still see a candidate make a visit to the region, especially among the Republicans. Many of Giuliani's woes in New York stem from his campaign strategy of ignoring the early primaries and focusing on Florida, Spitzer said. If he does not prevail in the Sunshine State, he may be through.

“If he loses Florida, we will see McCain and (Mitt) Romney in upstate New York somewhere,” Spitzer said.

Spitzer added that national interest is especially high with these primaries because of so many issues deemed important by voters. For instance, there was not a single issue during the 2000 election that bore comparable weight to the war in Iraq, global warming, immigration or the housing market, he said.

“You can just look at the voter turnout in the caucuses so far,” Spitzer said. “There are very important issues (this election) that are very much in the mind of voters.”

But even with a wide-open primary on both sides, the election boards in upstate counties have not noticed much of an upsurge in registration, he said. There has also not been a lot of media attention in the region surrounding the Feb. 5 primary, Spitzer said.

In Cayuga County, approximately 33,000 residents are registered and able to vote in the primary this year, according to the county board of elections.

Elections Deputy commissioner Tom Prystal Jr. said that about a third of eligible voters in Cayuga County usually end up casting a vote in the presidential primary. And this year does not look to be much different.

“We have had some extra phone calls and people contacting us, but not a big increase (in interest),” Prystal said.

Perhaps the reason is that, when it comes to campaigning, New York City gets the bulk of the attention.

“You don't have to be a brain surgeon to know that the money is in New York City,” Lacey said. “It is the media center, too. And media coverage is the end all be all when it comes to Super Tuesday.”

Heary said that the state's election laws could also have an effect on the primary turnout. The registration date for voters who want to participate in the primary election has passed.

“A lot of people don't realize the time frame,” Heary said. “That is the unfortunate thing. Sometimes people think you can register right up to the very last minute and vote (in the primary), but you can't.”

Staff writer Christopher Caskey can be reached at 253-5311 ext. 282 or christopher.caskey@lee.net.

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