Our View: Don't always believe what the polls say

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 2:16 PM EST

As the 2008 presidential primaries roll toward Feb. 5, a “Super Tuesday” in which New York will join about 20 other states by holding its primary, we hope registered voters at this point have made their minds up - to vote.
No, we don't expect that all people should know by now the choice they'll make in the voting booth that day. But it should be clear to everyone that there's no good excuse to skip a trip to the polls.

The campaign has provided plenty of examples already why every person's vote is important.

Last weekend, there was the essential tie between Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the Nevada caucus (Clinton had a narrow edge in the popular vote while Obama secured slightly more delegates). Earlier, Clinton's victory in New Hampshire came despite poll numbers showing she trailed rather substantially heading into voting.

The latest proof came this week, when a group of polls showed that the New York primaries are not the foregone conclusions that pundits had labeled them.

Republican candidate John McCain now leads former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in a poll of state residents.

This snapshot marked a stunning turnaround, because Giuliani held a commanding lead in polls just a month ago.

The same new set of polls give Clinton a healthy lead, though Obama looks strong in New York City, which can be a huge influence in any election, especially a Democratic primary.

The real lesson from these polls and the actual results is that we truly have no way to predict the outcome of these elections.

The pollsters will probably never admit it, but perhaps their abilities to forecast elections have diminished with the development of new technology.

You have to wonder if their primary tool, the telephone survey, is able to truly capture the sentiment of a public that now relies on such a variety of telecommunication options.

Whatever is happening, it's clear that anyone who stays home because he or she believes the election has already been decided will be making a huge mistake.

The Citizens' Say

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