ALBANY - Aging baby boomers in upstate New York will likely place a concentrated demand for services in cities and older suburbs already facing financial challenges, according to a Federal Reserve report released Tuesday.

The 65-and-over population is projected to increase by 40 percent in upstate areas from 2005 to 2030 - part of a national trend that is expected to increase the need for government-aided services ranging from health care to social welfare programs, particularly in and around the region's largest cities, the Buffalo branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported.

“In upstate New York, high-needs seniors tend to be concentrated in metropolitan areas, cities and suburbs with sluggish economic and population growth,” according to the report.

The four major metropolitan areas upstate - Albany, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse- each reported a higher percentage of older residents in the 2000 census than the national average. Demographers who have studied the trend believe it reflects an aging population coupled with a “brain drain” of younger residents to other parts of the country.

The Fed report notes that those metropolitan areas also have a relatively high concentration of older adults likely to rely on services - that is seniors who are either disabled, poor, living alone or over age 74.

Looking at where seniors live in upstate New York, researchers found that older suburbs, which experienced most of their growth before 1960, have the highest percentage of people aged 65 and over: 18.2 percent in the 2000 census. The study suggests this is because families with children tend to settle in newer suburbs farther from city centers. While the region's cities have a lower concentration of seniors - 12.3 percent - they still have a relatively high proportion of high-need seniors, according to the report.

The Fed researchers said that having to increase senior care could be a challenge in those older suburbs and inner cities because many of the areas already face an eroding tax base and infrastructure in need of repairs.

“In many upstate New York communities, where the increasing demand for services and infrastructure takes place in an environment of fiscal stress, local governments will likely face difficult decisions,” according to the report.

Bill Ferris, New York state lobbyist for the AARP, said the Fed study did a good job sketching out the challenges government faces in the future. He added that any remedy - be it tax credits or respite care - would need to address the spouses, children and other caregivers who provide the majority of senior care.

“There needs to be a focus on the individuals who prove the majority of long-term care services in the state, and that's the family caregiver,” Ferris said.