New York status may hurt Clinton?

By The Associated Press

Saturday, May 19, 2007 10:41 PM EDT

ALBANY - Eight years ago when Hillary Rodham Clinton began her quest for a U.S. Senate seat, she was harangued across New York as a “carpetbagger” and greeted with Ray Charles' voice warning voters were soon “going to send you back to Arkansas.”
Now, as she runs for president, Clinton faces a very different reality, one much on display at New York's state Capitol recently as she accepted the endorsements of Gov. Eliot Spitzer and other top New York Democrats. She has become, for better or worse, a New Yorker.

“She is a New Yorker, through and through,” Spitzer declared as the crowd cheered.

“Let's put America in a New York state of mind,” bellowed state Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver as he called for Clinton's election.

While six New Yorkers have been elected president, none has made it to the White House since Franklin Delano Roosevelt made the jump from governor in 1932 and went on to win re-election three times. No New Yorker has won a major party nomination since Republican Thomas Dewey lost the 1948 election to Harry Truman.

For potentially ambitious New York politicians, a big part of the problem has been that as the rest of the country turned more conservative, New York continued to be viewed as a liberal bastion. Nelson Rockefeller, appointed vice president in the wake of Richard Nixon's resignation, wound up getting dumped from the 1976 GOP ticket by President Gerald Ford, largely because the former New York governor was considered too liberal.

But as the 2008 race for the White House heats up, national polls show two New Yorkers - Democrat Clinton and Republican Rudy Giuliani - leading in the respective races for their parties' nomination.

For Giuliani, the potential “New York problem” has already surfaced. While he has been widely hailed as the hero of 9/11, the former New York City mayor has found himself repeatedly questioned about his support for abortion rights, gun-control laws and homosexual rights. Those positions served him well in winning two terms as mayor in a city where there are five Democrats for every Republican, but they are not as popular among more conservative likely GOP presidential primary voters nationwide.

For Clinton, the New Yorker tag doesn't appear to have caused her a problem thus far. In fact, if anything, a major question among traditionally liberal Democratic presidential primary voters is whether she is liberal enough. She has angered some by refusing to declare her original Iraq war resolution vote a mistake and by balking until recently at supporting legislation that could lead to a quick withdrawal of U.S. troops.

Nationally, the electorate appears split about how it views Clinton. A recent Marist College/WNBC-TV poll found that 40 percent of voters nationwide think she is too liberal while 43 percent said her ideologically is “about right.” While 71 percent of Democrats felt her ideology was about right, 75 percent of Republicans and 39 percent of independents said she was too liberal.

“There's a problem for her in the general election,” said Republican operative Nelson Warfield. “Democrats have gone down to defeat with liberals from Massachusetts (Michael Dukakis and John Kerry) twice in recent memory. They're welcome to try with a liberal from next door, but it's a problem. What's the difference between a New York liberal and a Massachusetts liberal? Two syllables.”

But some Democrats aren't certain how easy it will be for Republicans to play on the New York connection.

Clinton “is a very unique candidate who transcends her geography. She is more associated with being the former first lady and coming from Arkansas than she is seen as a New Yorker,” said Chris Lehane, the veteran Democratic operative thus far unaligned for the 2008 race.

“She is branded as much bigger than just being the Empire State's senator,” Lehane added. “And, though from New York, she is not of New York - meaning she is not a New Yorker in terms of her ethnic, cultural and temperamental DNA, as, say, a Rudy or (former Gov.) Mario Cuomo.”

In fact, Clinton also has strong roots in Illinois, having grown up in the suburbs of Chicago. And, there are plenty of clips showing Clinton slipping into a drawl in the South or when speaking to black audiences.

Nonetheless, Clinton's New York supporters have provided some possible ammunition to the potential opposition.

“When we elect Senator Hillary Clinton, our state will finally get its fair share from Washington,” Silver proclaimed at the endorsement event, saying it would mean “more federal dollars to New York.”

Depending on the GOP opponent, that could be used against Clinton, said Steven Greenberg, a New York-based former Democratic operative who is now spokesman for the Siena College poll.

“If it's (Sen. John) McCain, it's potentially useable,” Greenberg said. “On the other hand, you are going to have people in Arizona who say having McCain would be good for Arizona.”

“And, if Rudy is the Republican opponent, all of that goes out the window anyway because they're going to be forced to vote for a New Yorker,” Greenberg added.

---

Marc Humbert has covered New York state politics for The Associated Press for more than 25 years. He can be reached via e-mail at: mhumbert(at)ap.org.

AP-ES-05-19-07 1156EDT

The Citizens' Say

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There are 2 comment(s)

Dan wrote on May 20, 2007 11:38 PM:

" The Clintons have lied for many many years. Why would you expect that to change? From White water vince Foster to Bills White House antics. Lets not forget the donations from the Chinese. I have bigger reasons not to trust either of the crooks. They stole stuff and trashed the White House. Why she is even the senator from NY boggles me???? "

Her biggest problem wrote on May 20, 2007 5:31 AM:

" is that she continues to lie about the war in Iraq. She cannot be trusted, period. Her voting record on the subject has been abysmal and she has rarely teken a stand against it. She should have run as a Republican, because that is what she is. "

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