WASHINGTON - President Bush now has the outlines of a bipartisan exit strategy for Iraq and a new secretary of defense to help carry it out. And while he's under no obligation to heed the Iraq Study Group's recommendations, the pressure on him to change course is now politically enormous.
Whether he'll go along, when, and to what extent, will shape the nation's political landscape in the months to come.
The group led by former Secretary of State James A. Baker III and former Rep. Lee Hamilton recommended on Wednesday that U.S. forces largely withdraw from combat over the next year and focus on training Iraqis.
It also called for stepped-up diplomatic efforts - including talks with Iran and Syria - to stabilize Iraq and revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Bush has spurned Iraq talks with Iran and Syria.
The commission's document offers a bipartisan blueprint for Bush - if he goes along with the recommendations - to begin extricating himself from the unpopular war. It stops short of proposing a specific troop-withdrawal timetable that Bush could not be expected to embrace.
Bush has sometimes sounded ready to embrace changes only to go back to the kind of stubborn line that U.S. troops won't leave until the mission is complete.
“This report changes the paradigm. Its most important impact is political. And the impact is going to be felt more strongly in Washington than in Baghdad,” said Jon B. Alterman, a former State Department official.
who specialized in the Middle East.
“Bush is looking for his legacy, but his party is looking toward the 2008 elections - and a lot of them are terrified. This could really provoke an earthquake and leave the president completely isolated unless he changes course,” said Alterman, now director of Mideast programs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Stephen Cimbala, a Penn State political scientist who studies war's effects on domestic politics, said pulling most U.S. combat troops out of Iraq by early 2008 has clear ramifications for the upcoming presidential election.
“I don't think anybody wants to run, especially on the Republican ticket, if Iraq in 2008 looks like it does today,” Cimbala said.
Since Democrats seized control of Congress in the Nov. 7 midterms, more and more Republicans have broken ranks with Bush on Iraq. The Baker-Hamilton report offers political cover for such defections.
Even within his administration, contrary voices are being heard. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley recently questioned whether Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was up to the job.
Robert Gates, a former study group member who was confirmed by the Senate 95-2 on Wednesday to take over as defense secretary, told senators the U.S. isn't winning the war and “all options are on the table.”
The man he'll replace, Donald H. Rumsfeld, called for a “major adjustment” in U.S. tactics just before resigning under pressure. Rumsfeld was the architect of the war.
Wednesday's was the first in a series of major reports on war options heading for the White House, including ones by the Pentagon and the National Security Council.
Bush could cherry pick, selecting the most palatable recommendations from among the 79 in the Baker-Hamilton pages, and taking others from other reports.
But the Iraq Study Group's report came with a warning label. It said the recommendations amount to “a new way forward. They are comprehensive and need to be implemented in a coordinated fashion. They should not be separated or carried out in isolation.”
The president called the report “a very tough assessment of the situation in Iraq” and said he would take the recommendations very seriously and act “in a timely fashion.” He also said, pointedly, that Congress wouldn't agree with every proposal, and neither would he.
White House spokesman Tony Snow said Bush continues to insist that Iran verifiably suspend uranium enrichment before U.S. engages in direct talks. But he left the door open for discussions through an outside group.
Snow called the report positive, even though it describes the current situation as “grave and deteriorating” and getting worse under current policies.
Many of its key recommendations, including a need to work more aggressively to hand over responsibilities to the Iraqis, are already “precisely what's going on,” Snow said.
In fact, Bush's trip to Jordan last week to press al-Maliki directly seemed written to the study group's script. “There is no substitute for sustained dialogue at the highest levels of government,” the report said, noting Bush's mission.
Al-Maliki asserts that his government will be able to control security by next June. And while military analysts openly question this, Bush could use the statement as a justification for starting to withdraw combat troops.
The report calls for withdrawing the bulk of the 140,000 U.S. combat troops now in Iraq while embedding some American forces within Iraqi units.
Lawrence J. Korb, assistant defense secretary under President Reagan and now a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress, said the report was right to recommend increasing pressure on the Iraqi government to take over military operations.
“Until the Iraqi leadership makes these painful political compromises, nothing is really going to change,” said Korb, who favors a faster withdrawal of troops.
The big open question remains: Is Bush ready to accept the bulk of the panel's recommendations, even though in some areas they constitute close to a 180-degree turn in policy?
Baker, who has been particularly close to the Bush family, wouldn't touch that question.
“You know, I've worked for four presidents,” he said. “And I never put presidents I worked for on the couch.”
---
EDITOR'S NOTE - Tom Raum has covered Washington for The Associated Press since 1973, including five presidencies.
AP-ES-12-06-06 1754EST
The group led by former Secretary of State James A. Baker III and former Rep. Lee Hamilton recommended on Wednesday that U.S. forces largely withdraw from combat over the next year and focus on training Iraqis.
It also called for stepped-up diplomatic efforts - including talks with Iran and Syria - to stabilize Iraq and revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Bush has spurned Iraq talks with Iran and Syria.
The commission's document offers a bipartisan blueprint for Bush - if he goes along with the recommendations - to begin extricating himself from the unpopular war. It stops short of proposing a specific troop-withdrawal timetable that Bush could not be expected to embrace.
Bush has sometimes sounded ready to embrace changes only to go back to the kind of stubborn line that U.S. troops won't leave until the mission is complete.
“This report changes the paradigm. Its most important impact is political. And the impact is going to be felt more strongly in Washington than in Baghdad,” said Jon B. Alterman, a former State Department official.
who specialized in the Middle East.
“Bush is looking for his legacy, but his party is looking toward the 2008 elections - and a lot of them are terrified. This could really provoke an earthquake and leave the president completely isolated unless he changes course,” said Alterman, now director of Mideast programs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Stephen Cimbala, a Penn State political scientist who studies war's effects on domestic politics, said pulling most U.S. combat troops out of Iraq by early 2008 has clear ramifications for the upcoming presidential election.
“I don't think anybody wants to run, especially on the Republican ticket, if Iraq in 2008 looks like it does today,” Cimbala said.
Since Democrats seized control of Congress in the Nov. 7 midterms, more and more Republicans have broken ranks with Bush on Iraq. The Baker-Hamilton report offers political cover for such defections.
Even within his administration, contrary voices are being heard. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley recently questioned whether Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was up to the job.
Robert Gates, a former study group member who was confirmed by the Senate 95-2 on Wednesday to take over as defense secretary, told senators the U.S. isn't winning the war and “all options are on the table.”
The man he'll replace, Donald H. Rumsfeld, called for a “major adjustment” in U.S. tactics just before resigning under pressure. Rumsfeld was the architect of the war.
Wednesday's was the first in a series of major reports on war options heading for the White House, including ones by the Pentagon and the National Security Council.
Bush could cherry pick, selecting the most palatable recommendations from among the 79 in the Baker-Hamilton pages, and taking others from other reports.
But the Iraq Study Group's report came with a warning label. It said the recommendations amount to “a new way forward. They are comprehensive and need to be implemented in a coordinated fashion. They should not be separated or carried out in isolation.”
The president called the report “a very tough assessment of the situation in Iraq” and said he would take the recommendations very seriously and act “in a timely fashion.” He also said, pointedly, that Congress wouldn't agree with every proposal, and neither would he.
White House spokesman Tony Snow said Bush continues to insist that Iran verifiably suspend uranium enrichment before U.S. engages in direct talks. But he left the door open for discussions through an outside group.
Snow called the report positive, even though it describes the current situation as “grave and deteriorating” and getting worse under current policies.
Many of its key recommendations, including a need to work more aggressively to hand over responsibilities to the Iraqis, are already “precisely what's going on,” Snow said.
In fact, Bush's trip to Jordan last week to press al-Maliki directly seemed written to the study group's script. “There is no substitute for sustained dialogue at the highest levels of government,” the report said, noting Bush's mission.
Al-Maliki asserts that his government will be able to control security by next June. And while military analysts openly question this, Bush could use the statement as a justification for starting to withdraw combat troops.
The report calls for withdrawing the bulk of the 140,000 U.S. combat troops now in Iraq while embedding some American forces within Iraqi units.
Lawrence J. Korb, assistant defense secretary under President Reagan and now a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress, said the report was right to recommend increasing pressure on the Iraqi government to take over military operations.
“Until the Iraqi leadership makes these painful political compromises, nothing is really going to change,” said Korb, who favors a faster withdrawal of troops.
The big open question remains: Is Bush ready to accept the bulk of the panel's recommendations, even though in some areas they constitute close to a 180-degree turn in policy?
Baker, who has been particularly close to the Bush family, wouldn't touch that question.
“You know, I've worked for four presidents,” he said. “And I never put presidents I worked for on the couch.”
---
EDITOR'S NOTE - Tom Raum has covered Washington for The Associated Press since 1973, including five presidencies.
AP-ES-12-06-06 1754EST
