BUFFALO - An exodus of retiring baby boomers from the work force over the next several years means places like schools and hospitals will be hanging out help-wanted signs.
But with a coinciding flight of 20- and 30-somethings from upstate, getting enough people to answer may be a challenge, according to a report released Wednesday by the Buffalo branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Roughly half a million upstate workers are projected to retire between 2000 and 2010, and nearly 800,000 more will stop working between 2010 and 2020. That means that even a region that has seen little job growth in recent years will experience a demand for new workers.
Nearly 20 percent of managers and 19.2 percent of community services workers are expected to retire by 2012, while about 13.5 percent of health care employees will stop working upstate, according to the report by economist Richard Deitz.
The numbers are about on par with national averages and came as no surprise to Michelle Marto of SEIU Local 1199, who said the union has been bracing its employers for years.
“The average age of a (registered nurse) is 47 to 48 years old right now. A lot are older,” she said. Between the physical demands of the job and improved retirement benefits over their careers, nurses are not likely to stick around past retirement age, Marto said.
“That population is going to retire fast and furiously,” she said.
The aging population will further bolster the demand for workers in health care and social services, the report said.
On the flip side, those retiring from manufacturing jobs aren't expected to create a shortage in that profession as international trade and more efficient production continue to take a toll. And even with retirements, the demand for engineering, administrative, food preparation and retail employees also will be relatively low, the study projected.
Whether the expected availability of jobs in the high-growth areas will be enough to reverse upstate's population declines remains to be seen.
“There is a chicken and egg situation that makes it a little bit hard to diagnose,” said Matthew McGuire, spokesman for the Business Council of New York State.
“We know that New York state has been losing jobs and we know that New York state has been losing people ... It's not always easy to say if people leave because jobs leave or if jobs evaporate because there's no people to fill them,” he said.
“We believe that New Yorkers have been leaving because jobs have been leaving,” McGuire said, “and if retirements - and ideally, an improvement in our business climate - produce more jobs then people will return.”
Those improvements are important, he said, because even if jobs are available, if lower taxes make it easier to make a living or run a business elsewhere, people won't be lining up to go home again.
“Its just not safe to assume that people are going to come streaming back if we don't address our core policy problems,” McGuire said.
The report said employers seeking workers in services used by an aging population and provided through personal contact, such as health care and personal care and service, will have the toughest time filling vacancies.
“In fact,” the report said, “upstate New York may begin to face labor market pressures in an environment of little overall economic growth as it competes with other parts of the country for key workers in high-demand occupations.”
To counter the expected losses in health care, SEIU Local 1199 has bargained aggressively for training programs that allow lower level health care workers to go back to school to advance in the profession, Marto said.
“The number one way to stabilize this work force is to keep people in the profession,” Marto said. “Let them see that they have a a future in medical services.”
Hospitals have gone along, she said, eager to mitigate a potential crisis.
Employers can further prepare, the report said, by communicating which jobs they want to fill and what skills are most important to workers and the institutions that train staff.
Workers, meanwhile, should keep up with changing workplace demands, the report said, and be flexible enough to move between jobs as employers' needs evolve.
Roughly half a million upstate workers are projected to retire between 2000 and 2010, and nearly 800,000 more will stop working between 2010 and 2020. That means that even a region that has seen little job growth in recent years will experience a demand for new workers.
Nearly 20 percent of managers and 19.2 percent of community services workers are expected to retire by 2012, while about 13.5 percent of health care employees will stop working upstate, according to the report by economist Richard Deitz.
The numbers are about on par with national averages and came as no surprise to Michelle Marto of SEIU Local 1199, who said the union has been bracing its employers for years.
“The average age of a (registered nurse) is 47 to 48 years old right now. A lot are older,” she said. Between the physical demands of the job and improved retirement benefits over their careers, nurses are not likely to stick around past retirement age, Marto said.
“That population is going to retire fast and furiously,” she said.
The aging population will further bolster the demand for workers in health care and social services, the report said.
On the flip side, those retiring from manufacturing jobs aren't expected to create a shortage in that profession as international trade and more efficient production continue to take a toll. And even with retirements, the demand for engineering, administrative, food preparation and retail employees also will be relatively low, the study projected.
Whether the expected availability of jobs in the high-growth areas will be enough to reverse upstate's population declines remains to be seen.
“There is a chicken and egg situation that makes it a little bit hard to diagnose,” said Matthew McGuire, spokesman for the Business Council of New York State.
“We know that New York state has been losing jobs and we know that New York state has been losing people ... It's not always easy to say if people leave because jobs leave or if jobs evaporate because there's no people to fill them,” he said.
“We believe that New Yorkers have been leaving because jobs have been leaving,” McGuire said, “and if retirements - and ideally, an improvement in our business climate - produce more jobs then people will return.”
Those improvements are important, he said, because even if jobs are available, if lower taxes make it easier to make a living or run a business elsewhere, people won't be lining up to go home again.
“Its just not safe to assume that people are going to come streaming back if we don't address our core policy problems,” McGuire said.
The report said employers seeking workers in services used by an aging population and provided through personal contact, such as health care and personal care and service, will have the toughest time filling vacancies.
“In fact,” the report said, “upstate New York may begin to face labor market pressures in an environment of little overall economic growth as it competes with other parts of the country for key workers in high-demand occupations.”
To counter the expected losses in health care, SEIU Local 1199 has bargained aggressively for training programs that allow lower level health care workers to go back to school to advance in the profession, Marto said.
“The number one way to stabilize this work force is to keep people in the profession,” Marto said. “Let them see that they have a a future in medical services.”
Hospitals have gone along, she said, eager to mitigate a potential crisis.
Employers can further prepare, the report said, by communicating which jobs they want to fill and what skills are most important to workers and the institutions that train staff.
Workers, meanwhile, should keep up with changing workplace demands, the report said, and be flexible enough to move between jobs as employers' needs evolve.
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