When gasoline prices skyrocketed to more than $3 a gallon last September, Roberta Brigden, of Auburn, tried to be more economical with her shopping trips.

She waited to go shopping just once a week or to go shopping close to her workplace.

But as prices fell in the last few months to this week's average of $2.47 per regular gallon of gasoline statewide, Brigden returned to her normal driving habits.

“Now I just go when I need to go,” she said as she filled up on Grant Avenue Wednesday.

It will take prices rising back up to $3 per gallon, or close to that mark, for her to change her habits again, she said.

Cheryl Cole, of Cato, tried to see if her mother would want to make shopping trips with her when prices were close to $3 and above. But Cole, too, has returned to her typical routine as prices have dropped below $2.50 per gallon.

The $2.50 mark is where it begins to affect her bottom line, she said.

Brigden's and Cole's decision-making follows what AAA, the country's largest automotive and travel organization, has seen, said Diana Dibble, the public affairs manager for 25 counties in AAA's western and central New York coverage area.

When prices hit $3, drivers evaluated their driving habits and thought about ways to carpool and thought twice if errands were really necessary.

But even though prices are higher than they were a year ago, that kind of thinking has faded away.

“This week we're in a busy travel week with schools on break,” Dibble said. “We do know a lot of people head out of town in a car. It's still more economical than an airline ticket ... whether prices up or down, people don't change plans.”

It is predicted that Brigden, Cole and other motorists won't face the $3-plus gallon this

summer, but gas prices are

projected to rise later this year, reversing a trend over the last few weeks.

Gasoline prices have been falling since the new year. Recently, prices dropped 5.4 cents per regular gasoline gallon and dropped 2.7 cents per diesel gallon on the East Coast, according to the federal Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. Crude oil prices have also dropped.

But the EIA is expecting gasoline prices will rise again as winter ends for a number of reasons. Prices may start rising as early as March.

The reasons prices may rise include an annual happenstance where demand for gasoline increases with warmer weather. The EIA also predicts oil refineries will be figuring out how to phase out MTBE as a gasoline blending component - because several states have banned it out of concern for water safety - which could reduce supplies and push prices up.

Prices might also rise because of a process starting this month. Oil refineries are drawing down winter-blend fuels, which have a higher evaporative tendency to help vehicles start up in the winter. Summer-based fuels are formulated differently to avoid smog formation, but they cost more to produce because refineries must remove additional components in the fuel.

“All other things being equal, prices will go up,” said Neil

Gamson, an economist with the EIA.

The good news, Gamson said, is that the $3 gallon isn't expected to be seen again in

2006 because it would be

unusual to experience the same impact to the country's refinery capacity as the dual hits of

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused.

At the start of the year, a refinery in Louisiana and a refinery in Texas were still off-line.

But the 2006 international oil market is as tight as 2005's market, and with the United States' oil refineries operating at more than 90-percent capacity, there is little room in the refining system to weather disruptions to the system from hurricanes, a

refinery fire or international incidents.

In this situation, AAA advises that motorists find ways to be as conservative with their fuel use as possible, Dibble said.

That advice includes consolidating errand trips or finding shopping complexes that

have facilities for banking,

grocery shopping and other errands.

Drive at slower speeds. Avoid sharp starts and short stops. Keep vehicles maintained to achieve better fuel economy. When shopping for a new vehicle, pick one with better fuel economy. In the summer, use air conditioning minimally.

And don't make the mistake of driving out of the way to shop for lower fuel prices.

“You don't want to waste gas to drive to a distant station to save a few cents,” Dibble said.

Some are already following AAA's advice.

Virgil Switzer, of Owasco, estimates he only drives 5,000

miles a year. So higher prices “won't affect my driving habits,” he said.

Josh Cradduck, a student at Cayuga Community College, also said he limits his trips to his commutes between his apartment and campus.

“I don't drive a lot,” Cradduck said. “Just between my apartment and school. Gas prices don't really affect me that much.”

Staff writer Amaris Elliott-Engel can be reached at 253-5311 ext. 282 or at amaris.elliot-engel@lee.net