There most likely isn't a local public policy meeting where numbers are not randomly thrown out. Listeners are then supposed to see that as the end all be all of the point the speaker is trying to make. A single number does not make a trend. Rarely do we hear cogent arguments, supported by reams of data, which should make us take note locally. One of those rare occasions occurred last week at the Sunset Restaurant.
On Wednesday, the Cayuga Community Health Network brought in Dr. Paul Eberts of Cornell. He is one of the co-authors of the massive "Socioeconomic Trends and Well Being Indicators in New York State: 1950-2000" that looks at trends, to point out the strengths and lurking dangers that face places like Cayuga County. Dr. Eberts has a way of putting his data in easy-to-understand language by using simple examples.
Cayuga County is classified, in his study, as a Rur-Urb-Suburban County. What distinguishes it from rural neighbors, such as Cortland and Seneca is both the density of our population and also the fact that more than 35 percent of our residents are commuters. While that is a number that billboard sales people may use to sell advertisements along 5 & 20, it also has a less obvious impact. Dr. Eberts points out that with high commuter rates it is becoming harder, for example, for some rural fire departments to get EMS volunteers.
In the area of medicine, our number of doctors per 10,000 people has remained flat, while nurses have seen an up tick recently. Currently, 12 percent of our local economy is health-care related, up from roughly 9 percent in 1990 and around 2 percent in 1960.
Most troubling in Dr. Eberts' report are the trends we are seeing in population. Those in the 0-17 age bracket are on the decline. He believes that "what keeps Cayuga County alive" is our 21-64 age bracket, our productive labor work force. By the way, the 65-plus age group is on the increase, but doesn't match the 85-plus age group that has seen, in recent years, rapid growth in proportional percentages.
So what do such demographic trends mean? While the second group is keeping us going, not having the 0-17 age bracket remaining around means the medical costs of dealing with that 65-plus group, if not employed, will fall on a smaller portion of our population.
Coupled with that bad news is that in " nine major county budget areas," Cayuga County is up. So with the trend in government expenses (a chunk in the aforementioned area of health care) up, there is no end in sight for tax increases. By the way, those who think that the trend has been to shrink government in recent years with "conservative leadership," the size of public administration is slightly up, more than 7 percent of our local economy.
Cosentino is a former mayor of Auburn and can be e-mailed at cozguytho@aol.com
Cayuga County is classified, in his study, as a Rur-Urb-Suburban County. What distinguishes it from rural neighbors, such as Cortland and Seneca is both the density of our population and also the fact that more than 35 percent of our residents are commuters. While that is a number that billboard sales people may use to sell advertisements along 5 & 20, it also has a less obvious impact. Dr. Eberts points out that with high commuter rates it is becoming harder, for example, for some rural fire departments to get EMS volunteers.
In the area of medicine, our number of doctors per 10,000 people has remained flat, while nurses have seen an up tick recently. Currently, 12 percent of our local economy is health-care related, up from roughly 9 percent in 1990 and around 2 percent in 1960.
Most troubling in Dr. Eberts' report are the trends we are seeing in population. Those in the 0-17 age bracket are on the decline. He believes that "what keeps Cayuga County alive" is our 21-64 age bracket, our productive labor work force. By the way, the 65-plus age group is on the increase, but doesn't match the 85-plus age group that has seen, in recent years, rapid growth in proportional percentages.
So what do such demographic trends mean? While the second group is keeping us going, not having the 0-17 age bracket remaining around means the medical costs of dealing with that 65-plus group, if not employed, will fall on a smaller portion of our population.
Coupled with that bad news is that in " nine major county budget areas," Cayuga County is up. So with the trend in government expenses (a chunk in the aforementioned area of health care) up, there is no end in sight for tax increases. By the way, those who think that the trend has been to shrink government in recent years with "conservative leadership," the size of public administration is slightly up, more than 7 percent of our local economy.
Cosentino is a former mayor of Auburn and can be e-mailed at cozguytho@aol.com
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