ALBANY - In weighing whether to run again for governor next year or set his sights on seeking the 2008 GOP presidential nomination, George Pataki faces an obvious question: If they are tired of me at home, will they really love me in Iowa?

While national polls have shown Pataki is barely a blip on the Republican presidential front - trailing far behind front-runners Rudolph Giuliani, his fellow New Yorker, and Arizona Sen. John McCain - the governor has made it clear he is considering a run for the White House.

Last weekend he was in Iowa, site of the caucuses that signal the traditional official start of the presidential nominating process. Pataki was there ostensibly for the National Governors' Association summer meeting - aides couldn't remember if he'd ever gone to one before - but he also spent time picking the brains of Iowa pols and meeting rank-and-file Iowa voters.

Last year, he hired a team of new political advisers with expertise in Iowa presidential politics and courted Iowa's GOP leaders at last summer's Republican National Convention in New York City. He also invited an Iowa contingent to an inauguration party he held in Washington in January.

This, of course, fits into the category of: If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it may well be a budding presidential candidate.

New York's three-term governor has said he expects to decide by the end of September whether to run for a fourth. He has not said if he will let everyone know then if he will pursue national office.

The very notion that Pataki would even consider seeking national office has left many Democrats and a few Republicans scratching their heads.

As governor, he has supported abortion and gay rights as well as strict gun-control legislation at a time when conservatives who strongly disagree with those positions are increasingly in control of the GOP presidential nominating process.

A statewide poll out this week from the Siena College Research Institute found that 55 percent of voters think it is time for someone else to be governor. The poll had state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, a Democrat running for governor, leading Pataki, 49 percent to 37 percent.

While it is not the universal opinion within his circle of advisers, an influential core group believes it doesn't make sense for him to run for governor again if he wants to pursue national office. It would mean coming off one tough race right into another where other presidential nomination contenders would already have a head start. And, a loss to Spitzer would end Pataki's political career.

If he were to beat Spitzer, of course, he would enhance his national credentials as a giant killer (he already ousted Democratic icon Mario Cuomo in 1994 to become governor) at a time when Democrats may be preparing to put up New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for president. With a Clinton candidacy almost certain to rouse the GOP's conservative base, Republicans may look for a standard-bearer who can draw moderate voters. That, of course, would not necessarily benefit Pataki. Former New York City Mayor Giuliani and McCain are both currently considered stronger draws among moderates.

There is another potential problem for Pataki if he gives up the governorship.

"It's obvious there's a question mark about how Pataki can raise money running for president," said GOP operative Nelson Warfield, a top aide on Bob Dole's unsuccessful 1996 presidential campaign. "As soon as he stops being governor, the access crowd has less interest in being his pal."

While Warfield has done pro-Pataki work in New York for political allies of the governor, he is not among those who think the governor has much chance of becoming a real contender for the GOP presidential nomination. That does not mean Pataki won't try, Warfield said.

"Politicians who look long enough generally find a reason to make the race, even if that reason is mystifying to other observers," he said.